Navigating the Alt Bear and Bull Markets Accumulate for alt season and not panicking 08 Feb 2025

An apology

There are some great influencers with very specific approaches to the market that are sticking to their guns, they continue to put out content with honesty and integrity. They should be commended and are a shining light in the crypto space.

Introduction

An article was recently posted a blog article on Crypto Statto about avoiding losing all of your money in the cryptocurrency market. The article went to great lengths to explain how all markets involving investment can be equally as bad, or maybe not quite as bad as the risks within the cryptocurrency market. What prompted this article was the multitude of so-called crypto influencers running around like headless chickens because the altcoin market hasn't done as they expected, and other various scams.

Remember, none of this article is financial advice and is opinion based only. Please do your own research.

Trade Evidence

I'm going to paraphrase some recent quotes on various forms of social media by these many influencers within the cryptocurrency space;-

"I really can't explain what's happening in the crypto market - it's shocking to me!"
"I'm buying the dip"
"I can't believe just how much the altcoin market has dropped in the last couple of days"
"I can see 10 to 15X from here on in"
"Anyone know any good movies?"
"Utility altcoins will go ballistic in the coming few weeks and months"
"I'm buying heavily because AI Blockchains are the future"
"I believe Bitcoin will pump soon"
"The manipulation is off the charts"

Seeing the wood from the trees in crypto

Without going down any rabbit holes, one could presume that the impression is;

"I know I've been telling you to buy the dip but now it's time to just sit tight and wait for the next altcoin run"
"I'm not risking anymore capital, I'm definitely not buying any more coins until we see some genuine upside"
"Our world is over because the US government has not formally created its Bitcoin reserve yet"

What is the average retail investor supposed to do when altcoins have not taken off to anywhere near their potential?

The one thing few popular traders tell you in a dip or bear market

Most traders are in a trading frenzy between higher market cap coins and lower market cap coins right now. They are also buying altcoins and doing regular trading to try and accumulate more coins in the hope of a bigger move to the upside.

What makes this particular period of the cryptocurrency market's existence interesting - most know the truth, deep down, many of the altcoins we hold are nowhere near their all-time-highs. Buying more and just hoping that the price goes up when it doesn't is a fruitless and costly exercise. Indeed, there is not the appetite to keep buying large amounts of altcoins during the extended lack of upside in the altcoin market.

As discussed in yesterday's article, there are many bot accounts continually saying that they're buying coin X hoping to draw retail into that coin and pump it. We hope that you are not falling for this.

Are there a lot of bad actors in the cryptocurrency space?

Undoubtedly, some terrible individuals that lie and trick people are out there.

My take is that many are simply trying to figure out their way and are genuinely good people trying to grow the market because they believe in it.

Everyone has an angle, my platform is here to provide information and report with the intention of helping others within this space. Almost everyone is trying to find some way to make more from the market.

It is also why I don't tend to get too bothered by pump and dumps.

It is a problem when so-called rational calm thinkers lose their minds.

More flip-flops than Bondi Beach

In the space of a few hours we see popular influences pivoting from "Buying the dip", "I'm all in on coin X" to "Let's just see this one out and wait for the bull run" and "This market's going to 10X in the next few months".

So what do we do when the market is behaving like this?

Consider the possibilities

Is it possible that some famous people in the market are over-leveraged, and their panic is leaking out?
Do I need to put my money into cryptocurrency?
Should I be taking money out of cryptocurrency?
Do I need to take some form of affirmative action?
Can I remain calm when others are not?
What tools do I have to try and understand the market right now?

What we're doing right now

Those unfamiliar with our trading strategy won't know that we do limit order trading where we buy below market price and then sell above market price. There are many downsides to this approach including drawdown and upside risk. Often, what happens is we end up with lots of active orders that won't fire for a good while because the market has moved in a particular direction.

At this point we review existing trades that haven't fired, take a little bit off the table and we set levels within more recent timeframes. For example, earlier on we had a position with 1000 Cardano In a trade with Bitcoin that clearly is not going to fire anytime soon. So we took 250 Cardano off the table, set a new trade to set at a choice slightly above the current price, and we set the other 750 to sell above existing sale price. This gives us the potential to not lose on the upside in case Cardano increases substantially, and to allow us to have some exposure to short term volatility.

Many of you will be saying, big wow, but a few trades like this during the low period could result in doubling that 250. Nothing stops you setting that to the original higher amount.

So, for your efforts, you have gained 250 Cardano on your original 1000, and now have 1250. Some are talking of $10 Cardano, so potentially that is $2500 minus any taxes at some point in the future. For us we are considering cryptocurrency lending and it may be a better way to get the turn on crypto capital in future.

In effect we are shorting, and the worst that can happen is we sell those 250 Cardano too cheap. Well, if you are exchanging this in and out of BTC is this a terrible thing?

Remember, if the market is dropping, the chances are you will move in and out of coins as it falls potentially wiping out capital gains (not tax advice). In my personal opinion, the best thing that can happen is alts keep falling with BTC and we keep picking up more coins ready for a proper bull-run.

Be aware of those crypto influencers recommending dollar cost averaging in

Everything is super expensive right now. If you are new to cryptocurrency cutting back on some of your expenses an allocating small regular amounts to cryptocurrency is a no-brainer. The danger is we have so much hype around Bitcoin being $250k in 2025, in fact you can find many examples of people saying this in 2023, 2022, 2021, and so on. If you manage to say, put in $1000 in the next year and Bitcoin did indeed reach 250K, that means you have $2500 worth in Fiat value. Now let's suppose the Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 - that means you're $1000 is worth $10,000. Is this going to change your life? No.

Now imagine, that you are a high earner? Perhaps you earn $1m a year. Imagine you can put in $100k? Best Bitcoin went to $1,000,000, that would be a pretty fantastic return. What happens if Bitcoin drops down to $50K? DCA would therefore be buying more crypto below the original 100K level I'm so you may be able to accumulate way more crypto.

Invariably if in year 1 Bitcoin was at 100K and you put in 100K, and in year 2 Bitcoin was 50K and you put in another 100K you would end up with three Bitcoin. Now it's Bitcoin in year 3 went to $1,000,000 then you would have $3,000,000. Which would be fantastic.

However, imagine that you kept putting in regular amounts as the market crept up and then it does it's typical big drop? It is going to be a hard ask for anybody to stomach that.

None of this is financial advice, but you have to be aware of the reality of those saying to buy the dip and keep dollar cost averaging in. This is my personal opinion.

My answer is to keep buying and selling between coins to accumulate more. We provide an article with evidenced trades to show how this works.

Keep an eye on your positions

Maybe you have a coin that is surprisingly up by 9% on Bitcoin, often I sell immediately if lucky enough to spot it and then set to buy back on the swing.

Taking cash out in a bear market?

Yes, I do that too. It can be too tempting to buy alts when everyone in the market is screaming that it is really cheap and you will never get back in - FOMO!

Remember, you can't go with your begging bowl to the crypto influencers when you are out of cash.

Using tools and indicators to get a deeper understanding of the market

We still follow markets, look at data and insights, use data platforms. Maybe join a crypto platform, subscribe to their data, see if it helps? Or join a community.

We build new metrics and seek to develop new indicators to help us predict the market better. We explore new ideas, learn about new coins and try to understand why other coins haven't taken off yet.

At this point, we have to assume that FED announcements are priced into the market. If you think this isn't the case, analyse the data, develop your own framework. Test your model.

The goal is to keep getting more coins

It really is as simple as that and you don't need to panic, do nothing, or throw lots of money in when everyone else is losing their heads.

What if the altcoins never recover?

It can happen. All we can do is try our best without the stress.

There are a couple of coins I have accumulated quite a lot of, if they return to their all-time-highs it could amount to life-changing amounts. At the same time, am fully prepared that it may not happen. Why can one feel like this? This happens when you haven't put lots of money in you can't afford to lose.

Finally, don't listen to me, decide your own path

I could be completely wrong, perhaps I will wake up and all the alts will be 15x higher so if you decide to buy, follow your own path.